Sunday, October 14, 2012

The Number Fallacy

Coach Belichick is not a big advocate of statistics. He routinely brushes off questions about them. A great example is the analysis of punters and where Zolton Mesko fits.

He ranks last with a 39.3 yard average and is next to last with a net of 34.2 yards. Dismal numbers like this at another position would have a fantasy league player looking to dump them.

However, only 3 of  his 19 punts have been returned. This ranks best in the league. He has placed 11 of 19 kicks inside the 20 yard line. The Pats are tied in giving up the fewest punt return yards with only 22.

Is Mesko having a good season or should Belichick look for someone who can kick further? This point shows the fallacy of statistics.

Belichick has often said that a running back could carry the ball once for one yard, but it could be the biggest play of the game and keeps a 3rd and 1 drive alive late in the game. Just don't tell that to the fantasy players. 

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